IPredict

Article summary

iPredict was a New Zealand prediction market that offered prediction exchanges on current events, political issues and economic issues. iPredict was jointly owned by the New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation and Victoria University of Wellington. The site launched on 9 September 2008 and closed 1 December 2016. iPredict's system was a prediction market that allowed members to trade contracts (take 'positions') on whether future events would or would not occur. The contracts had judgement criteria that defined how they would be settled. For example, a contract could be called "There will be a National Party Prime Minister after the next General Election". Other events included financial predictions, such as "The NZX50 Gross Index closes equal or higher on Friday 7 December, than the closing price on Thursday 6 December." iPredict facilitated trades between members, but did not participate in trading itself. Traders could either buy (go long on) contracts, indicating that the event would happen or sell (go short on) contracts, indicating the event would not happen. The trading unit was a contract with a settlement value, typically either $0 or $1 and the contract could trade between these values where 1 percent equals $0.01 in value.…

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Discussion questions

1. Summarise the article in your own words. Which single claim would you verify first, and why?
2. Which claim in this article is most likely to be revised as the sources update? How would you check its current status?
3. If two sources disagreed about one of these facts, what would you need in order to trust one over the other?

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