Predictive validity

Article summary

In psychometrics, predictive validity is the extent to which a score on a scale or test predicts scores on some criterion measure. For example, the validity of a cognitive test for job performance is the correlation between test scores and, for example, supervisor performance ratings. Such a cognitive test would have predictive validity if the observed correlation were statistically significant. Predictive validity shares similarities with concurrent validity in that both are generally measured as correlations between a test and some criterion measure (criterion validity). In a study of concurrent validity the test is administered at the same time as the criterion is collected. This is a common method of developing validity evidence for employment tests: A test is administered to incumbent employees, then a rating of those employees' job performance is, or has already been, obtained independently of the test (often, as noted above, in the form of a supervisor rating). Note the possibility for restriction of range both in test scores and performance scores: The incumbent employees are likely to be a more homogeneous and higher performing group than the applicant pool at large. In a strict study of predictive validity, the test scores are collected first. Then, at some later time the criterion measure is collected.…

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1. Summarise the article in your own words. Which single claim would you verify first, and why?
2. Which claim in this article is most likely to be revised as the sources update? How would you check its current status?
3. If two sources disagreed about one of these facts, what would you need in order to trust one over the other?

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