Seneca effect
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The Seneca effect, or Seneca cliff or Seneca collapse, is a mathematical model proposed by Ugo Bardi to describe situations where a system's rate of decline is much sharper than its earlier rate of growth.
The Seneca effect, or Seneca cliff or Seneca collapse, is a mathematical model proposed by Ugo Bardi to describe situations where a system's rate of decline is much sharper than its earlier rate of growth.
Use
One of the model's main practical applications has been to describe the resultant outcomes given the condition of a global shortage of fossil fuels. Unlike the symmetrical Hubbert curve fossil fuel model, the Seneca cliff model shows material asymmetry, where the global rate of decline in fossil fuel production is far steeper than forecasted by the Hubbert curve. The term has also been used to describe rapid declines in businesses that had grown for decades, with the rapid post-2005 decline and resultant bankruptcy in Kodak as a quoted example.
See also
Hubbert curve Societal collapse Joseph Tainter https://books.google.ca/books/about/The_Seneca_Effect.html?id=F14yDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y
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